The Kyle Report

The Kyle Report

Monday, January 22, 2018

Sales tax collections: What a difference a year makes

January’s sales tax collections continued to exceed budget forecasts for January, but that reflects less on Kyle’s economy — although it seems to be growing (see variance from last year in the chart below) — and more on the more conservative forecasts for this fiscal year.

January’s figures reflected the fourth (out of a possible four) consecutive month this fiscal year that sales taxes have surpassed the budget’s forecast. At this time last year, receipts had dipped below forecasts for two of the four months and overall the city was $36,307.20 below forecasts for the fiscal year. This year it is $171,614.06 on the plus side. That’s quite a turnaround.

However, that’s because the estimated sales tax growth between January FY 2016 and 2017 was 11.3 percent. The estimated growth for this fiscal year, on the other hand, was a far more modest and realistic 3.6 percent. There you have it.

(Updated at 3 p.m.) "I’m very proud of the 13 percent increase in sales tax revenue collected so far this year," Mayor Travis Mitchell said today. "It represents something very important to our city — economic diversity. Only through economic diversity can we begin to increase our quality of life without a corresponding increase in property taxes. We are laser-focused on keeping this trend going. The next big push is to land a large employment center. I’m confident we’ll get it done soon.

"As to the forecasts being low, I think we learned an important lesson through last year’s deficit," Mitchell said. "To me, you should never budget for best case scenario. And in this case, our more conservative approach has provided us the opportunity to record a surplus in the sales tax budget. That’s a good thing and those monies will be put to good use." (End updated material)

Here’s a quick glance at January’s numbers:


Sales tax collected

Budget
surplus

Percent
Surplus
FY percent Surplus

Jan. 2017
Collections
Variance from
last year
$618,416.40
$62,581.40
11.26%
7.41%
$536,291.12
15.31%


You can read the entire report here.

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