Property valuations: today's actual numbers don’t matter nearly as much as what they mean

 Up.

There’s no doubt that’s the direction Kyle is heading when it comes to property valuations. Of course, that’s not exactly news — Kyle has been growing rapidly over the last decade. What’s different this year is that in 2021 this growth is largely being fueled by commercial, not just residential, valuations.

The Hays County Appraisal District released its preliminary assessed valuations of real property in Kyle today and if you look at its tables, there’s a lot to digest there. But I’m less concerned about the actual numbers and more concerned about what those numbers represent. In order of importance, I would list the most important takeaways from HCAD figures are:

1. A major increase in new jobs coming to Kyle during the last year.
2. Kyle’s commercial growth is significantly outpacing its residential growth.
3. The City should remain in a sound financial position with the ability to notably increase services provided while, at the same time, possibly being able to lower the property tax rate.
4. Of all the numbers being tossed around with the release of HCAD’s tables, the two most important are that commercial valuations in Kyle grew by 27.9 percent last year as compared to 15.7 percent for single family residential.
5. Although the percentage growth of multifamily valuations was slightly higher than that of single-family (19.6 percent to 15.7 percent), concerns that multi-family units are overwhelming the city are unfounded. Multi-family accounts for only 12.8 percent of the total residential valuations.
6. Kyle is quickly becoming a major contributing part of a single, monolithic urban complex that will stretch along I-35 from Georgetown through San Antonio that will dwarf in both size and financial/political clout the so-called Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. (By 2050, Kyle will be the most populous city between Austin and San Antonio and might even achieve that distinction by 2030.)
7. Homeowners will complain once again when they receive their property tax bills later this year, neglecting two salient facts: First, that most of this increase will come from school taxes and second, and perhaps even more importantly, their financial net worth has also dramatically increased.

I solicited response from city officials to gauge their reactions to the HCAD numbers and to obtain, in their words, the significance of the numbers released, but received no response prior to publishing this story.

In its formal release of the property appraisals today, HCAD said:

“The overall market value of Hays County’s 2021 preliminary appraisal roll rose to $39.66 billion, up 19.10 percent from $33.30 billion in 2020. Commercial and industrial property increased in value 21.41 percent, up from $3.28 billion in 2020 to $3.98 billion this year.

“Almost 3,000 new homes and 68 new commercial buildings were added to the appraisal roll for 2021,” the district’s statement said. “Total new improvements added more than $1.18 billion in taxable value.”

The district has begun mailing appraisals notices to property owners who have until May 17 to appeal those numbers. Property owners can appeal on line by clicking here and then using the Online Appeal tab.

“Hays County remains a popular destination for new property owners with expanding job opportunities, good schools, and less of that big city feel,” the Appraisal District said in its statement. “The demand for land and homes creates a seller’s market which leads to an increase in sale prices. Traditionally, vacant lots show the largest increase in value and this year is no different with this category rising almost 40 percent from $928 million to $1.3 billion which is less of an increase than last year. Residential multi-family property grew to $2.7 billion, up 17.46 percent from last year’s value of $2.3 billion.”

In its statement, HCAD listed these numbers for an average home in the City of Kyle:

• 2020 residential market value: $215,919
• 2021 residential market value: $235,674
• 2020 residential taxable value: $207,424
• 2021 residential taxable value: $227,630

For Hays CISD, those numbers are:

• 2020 residential market value: $233,464
• 2021 residential market value: $258,103
• 2020 residential taxable value: $210,458
• 2021 residential taxable value: $237,177

Kyle’s commercial property valuations soar to record levels, residential valuations also increase

The Kyle Report has learned that the commercial property valuations in the city increased this year more than in the last six years combined. Residential valuations also increased significantly this year over 2020.

This means, if the property tax rate remains unchanged, the City will have a lot more money to spend during the next fiscal year which begins Oct. 1.

Although the Hays Central Appraisal District has yet to officially post preliminary figures for 2021, according to numbers obtained by The Kyle Report, commercial property valuations increased nearly $260 million this year over 2020. The previous record year for commercial property valuation increases was 2010 when the valuations increased by $75 million from the previous year.

Last year, the total property valuation for commercial property in Kyle was $524,242,917. This year that number is more than three quarters of a billion dollars — $783,701,058. That’s an increase of $259,458,141, an astronomical 49.49 percent.

(Updated material begins here) The Kyle Report has also learned HaysCAD plans to release its preliminary numbers later today. It will also show a combined commercial real estate and personal value of  $783,701,058 this year, but will say that's a net change of $170,737,211 from last year's total, but still an overall growth of 127.85 percent. The district's numbers will also show commercial valuations accounted for almost half of all new growth in Kyle during the last year. It will report a new residential count of 533 worth $119,213,900 during the past year and a new commercial count of 15 worth $108,846,554 which is 47.73 percent of the total new assessed valuations. 

“Based on the preliminary AV estimates provided to us by HaysCAD yesterday, here is a quick comparison of estimated change in AVs from prior tax year.” Kyle’s Director of Finance, Perwez A. Moheet, said today: “This comparison is before any adjustments such as for exemptions, etc. Residential single family:  $423.6 million or 15.7 percent increase; residential multifamily: $62.3 million or 19.6 percent increase; residential combined: $485.8 million or 16.1 percent increase (includes both single and multifamily); commercial: $170.7 million or 27.9 percent increase (includes personal property) (End updated material)

In spite of this astounding growth, commercial assessed valuations are still dwarfed by residential valuations, which also increased dramatically — 31.22 percent — from $2.38 billion in 2020 to $3.124 billion this year. The assessed value of property designated as multi-family was $379,106,479 or $2.7 billion less than single family residential valuations. That means multi-family only accounts for 10.82 percent of the total residential property valuations in the city.

In all, residential valuations account for 69.91 percent of the total market value in Kyle, while commercial valuations account for 15.64 percent.

This chart visually displays the annual increases in commercial property assessed valuations in the City of Kyle from 2007 through this year: