Tenorio must persuade the persuadables

Before I officially retired, I spent 20 years as a partner in a media consulting/crisis communications company and in that line of work I attracted a large number of political clients from all over the country, up to and including clients running for President of the United States. One piece of advice I gave to all these political clients was that their audience could be divided into three sections: (1) those who fervently agree with everything you say and stand for, (2) those who just as fervently disagree with everything you say and stand for and finally, (3) those who haven’t made up their minds one way or another. I argued that addressing just that first group was like preaching to the choir. You want to make sure they stay on your side, but you can’t win by devoting all your attention exclusively to them. I also said trying to talk to the second group was not only a complete waste of time (you’re never going to get them to admit "You know, you’re right and I’ve been wrong all these years" — that’s never going to happen), but sharing the conversation with this group gives them another opportunity to get their grievances aired. The group you need to speak to — the group you need to convince — is that third group. Persuade the persuadables.

This is advice council member Daphne Tenorio needs to follow right now.

I say this because of the publication yesterday evening of Tuesday’s city council agenda, specifically items 9, 10 and 11 on that agenda.

I’m not sure of any of the actual specifics but here’s what I expect to go down at Tuesday’s potentially spirited meeting. During the discussion on Item 9, council member Travis Mitchell, possibly joined by one or more of his council colleagues, will outline discussions held in executive session designed to attract an economic development to Kyle. Either during that discussion, but most likely in the discussion on Item 10, Mitchell, again possibly joined by one or more of his council colleagues who participated in these executive sessions, will allege that Tenorio either (1) failed to disclose her ownership of a business interest that stood to benefit from this economic development and thus failed to recuse herself from the discussions designed to pursue the development or (2) based on the information she gained in these private executive sessions she then purchased ownership of a business interest that would benefit from this economic development.

Then comes Item 11 in which Tenorio apparently plans to speak "about potential, perceived or real conflicts of interests as it relates to all council members."

In other words, she’s going to play her (President) Trump Card. Her message is essentially going to be: "OK, I’m dishonest. I’m a crook. But I thought I could get away with it because all the other council members are just as dishonest and just as crooked as I am." Just like Trump’s blame game, I’m betting that message will play well with her base (in fact anecdotal evidence suggests it already is), but it’s not going to convince anyone else. It won’t persuade the persuadables.

Item 10 on the agenda says "discussion and possible action" regarding whether Tenorio might have committed a felony or simply an ethics violation. The possible actions that could be taken include, I’m guessing, asking the Hays County district attorney’s office to pursue prosecution, turning the matter over to the Texas Rangers for additional investigations, remanding the issue to the city’s Ethics Commission (which contains at least two avowed Tenorio supporters), asking for Tenorio’s resignation, a censure, a reprimand, or taking no action at all. A number of these aforementioned options involve legal proceedings and it’s important to remember that in any legal proceeding there is a presumption of innocence on behalf of the defendant, at least until a final judgment has been rendered.

But there is another court at work here, the Court of Public Opinion, which for someone’s political present and future is just as important as the courts of law. And immediately speaking, the Court of Public Opinion might be even more important in this situation. How Tenorio handles that court will determine her immediate political future.

My advice to council member Tenorio right now would be to bite the bullet and hire a crack crisis communications strategist, one with a record of successes in the world of politics, and then follow that person’s advice on what to say, when to say it, where it should be said, how it should be said, and, equally as important, who should actually be saying it. Lay out a strategic communications course of action. Don’t deviate from it one bit. Don’t go off-script, not for a second.

This is the only way she will have a chance to successfully persuade the persuadables.