How redistricting will affect Kyle

Currently, Kyle is represented by Democrat Lloyd Doggett in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republican Donna Campbell in the Texas Senate and Democrat Erin Zwiener in the Texas House of Representatives. Two years from today, two of those names will be different and all three will be Democrats. It is also extremely possible that Kyle’s representative in the state senate will be from Laredo, 222 miles from Kyle. That, in summation, is the result of the newly redistricted congressional and legislative maps.

It initially appeared as though all three names would change as the initial map carved Zweiner’s home in Driftwood out of what was the once-battleground 45th District and placed it in the safely Republican 73rd. However, an amendment to the map was introduced that moved her back into District 45 and it passed easily. Shortly after that, Zweiner announced she would seek re-election in the district, which President Biden won by 7.1 percentage points over Donald Trump. Biden, however, would have won newly redistricted House District 45 by a far more comfortable margin of 19 points. Zweiner’s old district was 62 percent White and 32 percent Hispanic. The new District 45 will be 55 percent White and 38 percent Hispanic and will no longer include the cities of Wimberley, Dripping Springs and Johnson City.

Although Doggett could easily win re-election to the 35th Congressional District he currently represents — a district that is even more solidly safe for a Democrat than it was before — he has decided to run for the new district that was created for the city of Austin. And even though minorities in general and Hispanics in particular comprised the greatest number of new voters in Central Texas, the 35th District, as redrawn, has gone from one that had been 53 percent Hispanic to one that is now 48 percent Hispanic. It remains, however, a minority/majority district as only 34 percent of the registered voters in the district are White. The congressional district went for Biden last year by a whopping 37.1 percentage points (67.6 percent for Biden, 30.5 percent for Trump). If that election had been held with the new map in place the results would have been even more one-sided — 71.5 percent for Biden, 26.4 percent for Trump. So it seems safe to predict that Texas Congressional District 35 will remain in the hands of a Democrat. The question is who? 

Austin City Council Member Greg Casar says he has formed an exploratory committee to inform his next steps and state Reps. Eddie Rodriguez, D-Austin, and Trey Martinez Fischer, D-San Antonio, say they also are mulling runs for the position. 

“We can win better jobs, a clean planet, and an end to the Republicans’ discriminatory laws,” Casar, who has served on the Austin City Council since 2015, said in a statement. “We can make the world a better place if we fight for it. If we organize for it. That’s why I’m considering running for Congress — to fight for working class and everyday Texans.” 

Rodriguez, who was first elected to the Texas House in 2002, said he is “very seriously considering” running for the seat, one he believes should be represented by a Latino or Latina. “I'm taking a hard look at it,” Rodriguez said. “It's an opportunity that doesn't come up very often.”

The newly redrawn 35th Congressional District covers much of East Austin and stretches south along Interstate 35 to incorporate the eastern edges of Hays and Comal counties and a large portion of San Antonio. Doggett has represented the district since it was created in 2011. A late change to the proposed district drew Martinez Fischer's San Antonio residence within the boundaries of the 35th District. Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston and the architect of the new map, said the change was made at Martinez Fischer's request.

The new Senate District 21

But the biggest change for Kyle will be its representation in the state senate. Formerly, Kyle was in Senate District 25 that extended west from the city. That district was 62 percent White, 29 percent Hispanic and 5 percent Black. Trump carried it by 8.2 percentage points in 2020, 53.3 percent to 45.1 percent for Biden. After redistricting, Kyle will be part of Senate District 21 that extends south from the city — way, way, south — all the way to the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The demographics of this new district will be, for all practical purposes, a mirror opposite of the old one — 61 percent Hispanic, 32 percent White. Biden would have carried this district comfortably with 57.7 percent of the vote as compared to 40.7 for Trump, a Biden victory margin of 17 percentage points. That’s a shift of 25.2 percentage points in favor of Democrats, which should signal Republican Campbell will be replaced as Kyle’s representative in the state senate by a Democrat. Again the question is who and, possibly even more problematic for Kyle, will it be someone with even a passing knowledge of the city’s wants and needs at the state level. The district is currently represented by Rep. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo. She has yet to announce whether she plans to seek re-election to an 11th term next year. She is the first Hispanic woman elected to the Texas Senate, the second highest-ranking senator, and the highest-ranking woman and Hispanic senator. She has passed more bills than any other legislator in the history of the State of Texas.

There’s also the question of just how long Democrats will control this newly redrawn Senate District 21. According to a scorecard developed by the Texas Tribune, the most conservative Democrats in the Texas Senate and House are located in San Antonio and south of the Alamo City. In addition, Texas’s Hispanic population, particularly those Hispanics in southern parts of the state, are rapidly migrating to the Republican Party.